Emeka Maduewusi
Governor Peter Obi’s quest to serve Nigerians as president will not douse my desire to have a sovereign Igbo Nation within the geographical state called Nigeria. Even if Mr. Peter Obi wins, which he is destined to, I will OBIdiently spend my YUSful time advocating for the recognition of our differences as building blocks for a strong nation-state.
Two of the most powerful quotes attributed to our founding fathers relate to the positions of the Right Honorable Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe and Alhaji Almadu Bello on how to handle Nigeria’s ethnic, religious, and other natural differences. While Dr. Azikiwe, Christain and American-trained Pan-Africanist, was of the view that we should bury our difference, Alhaji Bello, Muslim, and the Sardauna of Sokoto was of the view that we should recognize our differences. I agree entirely with the Prince of Sokoto. My next essay will address this topic. Today is for the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket.
Nigeria is uniquely divided between two foreign religions; Christianity and Islam. This division runs along geographical coordinates, with the North being predominantly Muslim, and the South predominantly Christian. Running along the geopolitical zones, while the population of the South East and the South-South are solidly Christian, at about 99%, the South West has a significant Muslim population of about 42%. That will put the population of South West Christians at about 55%, recognizing that many Yorubas still practice the religion our Creator assigned to their ancestors. In summary, the population of Muslims in Southern Nigeria is less than 35%
With respect to this religious distribution, the North is not exactly the opposite of the South. In the North West and the North East, the states with super majority Muslim population are Borno, Bauchi, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Niger, Kano, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara. While Kaduna has a significant Christian population, Taraba and Adamawa States have Christians in the majority. The states in the North Central plus the Federal Capital Territory are religiously mixed except Benue and Kwara. While Christians dominate in Benue, Muslims dominate in Kwara.
As I already noted, the distribution of Christians and Muslims in the North does not mirror the South because some of the Northern States with a super majority Muslim population have substantial indigenous Christian minority, who form a majority in some local government areas. But for the purposes of this essay, let us assume that the respective population of Muslims and Christians in Nigeria is 47 and 48 percent.
Seriously speaking, Nigeria has just one political party, the Establishment Party, with most of our politicians picking up the broom or hiding under the umbrella depending on the individual politician’s level of hunger or size of corruption file with the EFCC. Nothing is based on ideology or principles. The Labor party is now in contention and the 2023 presidential election is poised to be a battle between the Establishment Party, known as the PDP, and the APC on the one hand, and the Labor Party on the other.
So, who is afraid of the Muslim-Muslim ticket? While the APC has a Muslim-Muslim ticket, its alter-ego, the PDP has a Muslim-Christian ticket. The Labor Party has a Christian-Muslim ticket. That makes for 4 Muslims and 2 Christians in the race. If all Muslims should ignore competence, corrupt history, and the questionable academic and family pedigrees of the Muslim candidates, and vote along strict religious lines, the Muslim population will divide her 47% voting block between APC and PDP. And if all Christians should reciprocate, the Labor Party will get a solid 48% voting block. Should we factor in the political capital of the Vice-Presidential nominees, and award 10% from the Christians to the Muslims and 5% from the Muslims to the Christians, that would give the Establishment Party 52% to take home and share, while the Labor Party goes home with 43%.
Why should anyone be worried about a Muslim-Muslim ticket in a nation with a Muslim minority? It is because Nigeria has been projected to the global audience by her multiple Northern and predictably Muslim Presidents as a Muslim nation. A Pakistani I met a few years ago was shocked I identified as Christian, and could not believe that Nigeria has any significant Christian population. Curiously, this was under the Presidency of Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, a fact I made known to the Pakistani. Unfortunately, Nigerian Christians, especially the Southern species, are the most timorous souls to ever parade Christendom.
So, who should be worried about a Muslim-Muslim ticket? Since the winner of the presidential election is decided by two factors, percentage vote per state and popular vote, jejely make your own list of the states and figure out how Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Alhaji Ahmed Tinubu, Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso, and Mr. Peter Obi will perform in each state if the election is held today.
Are you still worried about the Muslim-Muslim ticket? You know the election is almost seven months away! Why not get ready to play real religious politics and vote in defense of your faith?
